As the US-led liberal political order is backtracking across the world, there are many signs that contending powers are trying to fill the vacuum. The world before 24February 2022 is unrecognizable today. For starters, the full scale invasion of Ukraine has entered its fourth year and is undergoing controversial negotiations to achieve a ceasefire. The United States has initiated a trade war that is very likely to end the Bretton Woods system as we know and mark the beginning of the return of trading blocs. Not to be outdone, our region is facing the silent disintegration of a sovereign state, i.e. Bosnia and Herzegovina. For any sensible person the dissolution of the fibers of the global & regional political order should be a cause for alarm. But not for the Kosovar political elite who are yet to form an assembly and a government to prepare the country for the upcoming challenges.

            Russia first encroached upon the sovereignty of Ukraine in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea peninsula. As a result of inadequate reactions by the West, Kremlin has progressively escalated the conflict to the point where in 2022 it initiated a full-scale invasion of the whole country. Three years later, the war has largely stalled whereby Moscow controls a little less than a fifth of the entire territory. Intense negotiations have commenced on finding a path to a ceasefire, but they have proven ineffective so far. Most importantly for Kosova, recently there have been talks of US recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea as part of a final deal. While it is too early to talk about a definitive position, such a move has serious ramifications for our country as it would be the first legitimization of a forceful acquisition territory in the European continent since WW2.

What would Kosova’s official position be on a deal for ceasefire? Would it accept an agreement that violates Ukrainian sovereignty? What if the European allies defy an American brokered agreement? What if the Trump administration suggests a Russian recognition of Kosova in exchange for Crimea’s recognition? Would that be acceptable for our government?

            Last few weeks saw the introduction of a tariff regime by the Trump administration that has targeted primarily China. This situation is bound to end the globalization as we know it. As a result economists have predicted a new wave of inflation – which would be the third overall since the start of the COVID 19 pandemic – and recessions, which would hit the European continent particularly hard. But beyond these concerns, the current circumstances will mark the beginning of the trading blocs similar to post WW2 when members of the West and Comecon countries had little trade. This is the follow-up of earlier policies of tariffs & bans against certain Chinese products and overall ‘de-risking’. Biden had introduced 100% tariffs against Chinese electric vehicles and introduced a strict ban on chip exports. Therefore, a certain trend of trading blocs has been emerging for some time and is likely to gain momentum going forward.

What will Kosovar trade policy in this new era be? Is Kosova ready to cut trade relations with China, even at the cost of further inflation? In a potential trade war between United States and the European Union, what would the Kosovar policy trade be? What will Kosova’s strategy for the attraction of foreign investments be in this new reality?

            Finally, last few weeks have seen an erosion of the territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina. On late February, the country’s Serb-dominated entity’s president Milorad Dodik was sentenced to prison sentence and a ban from public office. Ever since, instead of serving any time, Dodik has swiftly moved on to adopt a series of laws banning the work of the federal law agencies in the territory of the Republika Srpska and is in the process of adopting a new constitution for the entity that authorizes the right to self-determination and explicitly mentions ‘joining other states’. These moves are completely in line with the “All-Serbian Declaration” platform adopted last June that prepared the political-judicial ground for the implementation of the so-called Serbian World (srpski svet) doctrine. So far there was only one pretention of a move to arrest Dodik and federal police agency SIPA is incapable of operating in the entity.

            If Milorad Dodik moves ahead with his openly declared plans of independence, what would Kosova’s official position be? What would the country’s policy be if a conflict were to happen as a result? Would it actively aid Sarajevo? What would Kosova do if Serbia sends troops beyond Drina?

            These were only some of the most pressing issues that have resulted from the dramatic last few months. In the meantime, Kosova is still one of the most underdeveloped nations in Europe, its statehood contested by Serbia and much of the so-called BRICS and still faces existential threats by the Srpski Svet doctrine. How will these fundamental challenges be addressed? How will Kosova’s application for EU membership proceed? We already missed this year’s opportunity for a successful vote in the Council of Europe, but what will happen to have a different result next year? How will the efforts to lobby the EU member states to withdraw their restrictive measures happen?

            There are more questions in the Espresso Insight than answers. Admittedly, they are difficult questions. But at the end of the day, civil society and other societal actors can only ask questions, and at most suggest answers to them. But it is only a legitimately elected government’s and parliament’s job to provide definitive answers to them. That is why political parties ask for the trust of the citizens in elections – to provide solutions for societal problems and not to satisfy personal egos with positions. More than 3 months after the elections, the political class has so far failed to provide any roadmap to orient the country through the upcoming geopolitical storm. It is time to let go of these egos and finally start to take responsibility for the trust they have gotten from the electorate.