The 2024 EU Elections in Foresight: three scenarios for Kosovo

May 30, 2024

Authors

Alejandro Esteso Perez
European integration and enlargement issues, political relations with EU Member States

In this light, this paper has as foremost goal to draw a comprehensive picture of the EU’s enlargement prospects against the backdrop of an increasingly conservative Union. It will explore what is at play for the Western Balkans, and for Kosovo in particular, after the EP elections, and it will provide a set of recommendations to confront the EU’s new political reality. Following this introduction to the topic, Section 2 provides a political background to the 2024 EP elections through an assessment of the 2019-2024 EU mandate—placing a particular emphasis on the enlargement policy and on the EU’s relations with Kosovo. Against this context, Section 3 goes on to present the ideological positioning of the (currently) seven political groups in the EP vis-à-vis the EU’s enlargement to the Western Balkans, and to Kosovo in particular, and map out the prospective outcomes of the groups’ coalition-building processes. Section 4 turns its attention towards the EC and the European Council, and discusses their potential future configuration—with a focus on the identity of the future Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement. Section 5 makes sense of the potential post-election uncertainties and maps out three scenarios for Kosovo—a best-case, a status quo, and a worst-case—which illustrate three divergent paths for the country’s accession prospects. The paper’s final conclusions and a set of policy recommendations are outlined in Section 6.

Policy Analysis

The 2024 EU Elections in Foresight: three scenarios for Kosovo

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