May 30, Prishtina – Group for Legal and Political Studies (GLPS) organized a Roundtable Discussion today on the topic: “Assessing the outcomes of the EU elections and the integration prospects for Kosovo: three possible scenarios”, which was held in Pristina. The aim of this event was to discuss three possible scenarios of the outcomes of the EU elections and their implications on Kosovo’s integration path.

At the beginning of the event, GLPS published a Policy Analysis titled: “The 2024 EU Elections in Foresight: three scenarios for Kosovo”. Ahead of the upcoming elections for the European Parliament, in a context of the unstoppable rise of far-right forces across the EU, this report discusses the potential impact of the election outcomes on the EU’s enlargement policy towards the Western Balkans, and Kosovo in particular.

Some of the findings of the report are as follows:

• Kosovo’s integration prospects, as well as those of the entire region, will be at risk of further deterioration in the event of a possible rise of the right in the European Parliament.
• As the influence of far-right parties grows within the EU, the significance of the EU’s Enlargement Policy in the future will diminish significantly.
• The report further emphasizes that, according to a brief analysis, there are real chances that at least 20% of future MEPs will be against Kosovo’s membership in the EU.

The report also analyzes three different scenarios for Kosovo’s integration path, depending on the preliminary results of next week’s EU elections. The first and best scenario, although with minimal chances of happening, is the formation of a progressive-liberal coalition between S&D, Renew, and Greens, who have shown unconditional support for the EU’s Enlargement Policy. The second scenario is one of the Status-quo, which would represent a more central coalition between EPP, S&D, and Renew, which is more or less built on the experience of the current leadership 2019-2024, where most of the agreements regarding the EU Enlargement actually took place. While the third and worst scenario would be a strong right-wing majority, where right-wing and far-right parties would take the majority of seats in parliament, and consequently, would lead the EU’s agenda.

In this regard, during the discussion, three main recommendations were also offered, as follows:

Further isolation of anti-enlargement voices in the European Parliament, where a united pro-enlargement majority should be heard loudly.

Appointment of a politically and technically strong European Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement, meaning, a figure who can also hold the role of Vice President of the European Commission, to send a message of sincere commitment to EU Enlargement.

The Government of Kosovo to remain engaged in its efforts for EU integration, despite a hostile international context geopolitically and ideologically.

Panel included Ms. Rezarta Krasniqi – Member of the Kosovo Assembly from the LDK ranks and Chair of the Committee for European Integration, Ms. Engjellushe Morina – Expert in the field and senior official in the European Council for Foreign Relations (ECFR), and Mr. Demush Shasha from the EPIK Institute.

This event was supported by the SMART BALKANS – Civil Society for Shared Society in the Western Balkans.

Venue: Europe House, Str. UÇK, 10000 Prishtina, Kosovo