The political order of the Western Balkans was sealed in 2008 when the break-up of
Yugoslavia was finalized with the independence of Kosova. The general consensus
among foreign policy community is that Serbia is the only dissatisfied actor with this
regional order and the main sponsor in the quest to overturn it is the Russian Federation.
This Policy Analysis will argue that in the post-Ukrainian invasion world this perception is
outdated. Russia is for the moment being: a. Politically isolated because of the violating
the UN Charter in Ukraine, b. Financially confined because of the quagmire in the
battlefield and innumerable sanctions and c. Militarily fully involved in the war to spare
any armament for its southern Slavic brethren. The vacuum created by the Russian
involvement in its war of conquest was filled successfully by China, surprisingly, under
the radar. Serbia today is the largest per capita benefactor of Chinese investment in the
world, has acquired robust military weapons like air-defense systems FK-3 designed to
shoot down NATO airplanes and has enjoyed political support through strategic
agreements and in its EXPO27 bid and resistance against Srebrenica Resolution.

This fateful confluence of long-term interests – namely overturning the Western
led liberal world order – suggests that both countries will act in synchrony in the
foreseeable future. Potentially the biggest outcome of this strategic relationship could be
in the instance if China decides to invade Taiwan. This potentially pivotal event would
create a security vacuum in the Western Balkans that could be exploited by Serbia to
invade Kosova. Therefore, this paper argues that the more these relations deepen, the
less incentives will Serbia have to agree on anything or implement the agreements it
accepted under diplomatic pressure. Belgrade will push papers until a new configuration
of international circumstances that allow other means surfaces i.e. Vucician newspeak
for war.